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COVID-19 Devours Japanese Economy; Industry Performance Index in Biggest Historical Downturn
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2020-04-09
        Japan Teikoku Databank (TDB) did a national industry performance survey in March. The diffusion index ("DI", used in both business cycle analysis and in macroeconomic forecasting) dropped 6.2%, hitting the all-time low at 32.5%. The exacerbation has continued for 6 months. The virus sets Japanese restaurants and travel agencies in a mass depression. This is the first time that 50 industries in all 10 sectors are struggling with exacerbation ever since the TDB launched survey in 2002. The manufacturing industry witnesses negative growth continuing for 11 months.

         Due to the broken Chinese parts supply chain and suspension of domestic activities in Japan, the Japanese manufacturing DI dropped by 4.6%, landing at 30.3%. Based on the virus impact and oil price drop among other uncertainties, the Japanese market performance is expected to head downwards. TDB did a survey on Japanese publically listed companies regarding the virus impact. 141 companies expected their performance to fall during February and April with a total loss of revenue at JPY 1.1873 trillion. 30 companies expected the revenues to reduce JPY 418.8 billion during March and April.
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